The Gaza peace talks that aren’t

US President Joe Biden’s months-long efforts to organize a Gaza war ceasefire and talks intended to secure a sustainable Middle East peace are stalled by a confusing tangle of disparate views between Israel and Hamas – and even within the American administration – about how negotiations should proceed.

In almost desperate tones, the Biden administration is appealing for talks to begin in Qatar, a Persian Gulf mini-state. With an eye on possible failure, US forces are also preparing for war.

Such uncertainty in a volatile moment in an explosive region reflects Washington’s confused diplomatic style, in which it laid out objectives while both warring parties refused to go along and insisted on promoting their own rival, incompatible goals.

Biden announced original objectives with much fanfare on May 31, when he outlined presumed outcomes in the future negotiations:

• First, to obtain a “full and complete” ceasefire, as well the exit of Israeli military forces from populated parts of the Gaza Strip and the release of women and elderly hostages held by Hamas.

• Then, humanitarian aid would flow into Gaza and residents could return to battered neighborhoods from which they had been driven by more than 10 months of warfare.

• Next, if Hamas follows up by releasing the rest of the hostages, a permanent “cessations of hostilities” would begin and all Israeli forces would leave the entire Gaza Strip.

• As a sweetener for the Palestinians after so much death and destruction, foreign countries would pay to rebuild civilian infrastructure, including thousands of destroyed residences in Gaza.

Biden also declared victory on behalf of Israel: “They’ve devastated Hamas forces,” he said, adding that, “at this point, Hamas no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7^th” – a reference to the date in 2023 when Hamas forces invaded southern Israel and killed around 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians.

Biden also mentioned, in passing, that the sequence he outlined constituted “the Israeli proposal.”

For a day, that seemed to be the case. On July 2, Ophir Falk, the chief foreign policy advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called Biden’s declaration “a deal we agreed to. It’s not a good deal, but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them.”

The next day, Netanyahu contradicted Falk. He told Israeli legislators that his negotiators were willing to agree to a six-week ceasefire but then would move to continue the war, which has taken thousands of civilian lives.

“The proposal that Biden presented is incomplete,” Netanyahu said. “The war will stop in order to bring hostages back, and afterward, we will hold discussions. There are other details that the US president did not present to the public.”

On August 13, Netanyahu further declared he was interested only in a “partial deal” that would free “some of the hostages”, and was not interested in a ceasefire thereafter. “We are committed to continue the war after the pause, in order to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas” he said – preferring the word “pause” to ceasefire, as is his habit.

Netanyahu’s government then elaborated. In a statement, it set out plans for continuing the war, allowing for only a temporary ceasefire.

“Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” the government announced in a written statement.

“The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter,” the statement said.

Israel’s specific demands include the permanent stationing of troops inside Gaza along the border with Egypt. Hamas, meanwhile, has oscillated between unconditional acceptance of Biden’s outline and setting conditions of its own, finally announcing that its representatives would not attend the kick-off talks at all.

Hamas, an Islamic grouping that rules Gaza while the secular Palestinian Authority governs part of the West Bank, insists that a “permanent” ceasefire must begin after the temporary one and the release of hostages.

Hamas officials said no to a permanent stationing of Israeli troops inside Gaza — a rejection of Israel’s demand to control the Gaza side of the border with Egypt. Hamas also rejected an Israeli plan to search Palestinians returning to their destroyed homes during a ceasefire.

On Monday, Hamas returned to its original stand: Talks must adhere to the  plan “agreed upon by the (Hamas) movement on July 2, 2024, based on Biden’s vision.”

In a statement on Tuesday, Hamas said its negotiators would focus on the need to “completely” end the war, and on obtaining the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.”

However, after getting no acceptance of its own conditions from the US, Hamas said its representatives would not attend the talks. An official announced that Hamas would not attend the talks but would wait to hear what Israel presents to the mediators.

“We are not against the concept of negotiations and we were flexible in the previous rounds,” said Ahmad Abdul Hadi, Hamas’s representative in Lebanon. He listed reasons for not attending:

• Israel’s rejection of Biden’s permanent ceasefire idea; and
• the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh, the Hamas leader who was killed by an Israeli missile last month while visiting Iran.

“Therefore, we won’t participate,” Abdul Hadi said flatly.

Nonetheless, Hamas officials would be willing to hear from Arab mediators — Egypt or Qatar – about Israel’s position following the scheduled talks, Abdul Hadi said.

Amid all this pre-negotiation back-and-forth, US officials provided their own suddenly ambiguous positions.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, blamed Hamas for the logjam, without referring to Biden’s detailed plan. Instead, in exasperated tones, he reduced the goal of diplomacy to a single issue: “Our aim is to bring this process to a conclusion,” he said. “Our view is that the time for haggling is over — it’s time for a ceasefire.”

The blame game has also begun, in case of a diplomatic failure. For Washington, the target is already Hamas.

“Israel accepted the proposal as it was,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who in recent months had laid blame on Netanyahu for intransigence. “Hamas could have answered with a single word: ‘yes.’”

With a possible diplomatic debacle on the horizon, the Americans are preparing for an expanded war. Iran has pledged to retaliate for Haniyeh’s killing, which took place while he was visiting Tehran. Iranian leaders have blamed the Biden administration.

US Defense Department officials announced preparations for war to help Israel defend itself. The US Navy aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has been dispatched to the coast of Lebanon to deter an Iranian assault on Israel – and also to scare off Hezbollah, an Iranian ally in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has been engaged in tit-for-tat artillery, drone and rocket fire with Israel since October 7. The tat from now on may be more destructive.