MANILA – Marking a first, the Philippines hosted “two-plus-two” talks between American and Filipino defense and diplomatic chiefs.
By all indications, the high-level meeting among US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Philippine defense chief Gilberto Teodoro and Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo was the most consequential of its kind yet.
The US agreed to provide US$500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and defense aid to accelerate Philippine military and coast guard modernization as well as fortify the Pentagon’s presence in various Philippine military facilities under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
The two allies also finalized a new General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), a vital intelligence-sharing pact similar to that between US allies Japan and South Korea.
The US billed its expanded aid package as a “once-in-a-generation investment” in the Philippines’ defensive capabilities, with both sides celebrating their alliance moving into a “hyperdrive” mode.
The high-profile summit came against the backdrop of heightened Philippine-China tensions in the South China Sea in recent months. Those tensions spiked when China forcibly disarmed Filipino servicemen during a resupply mission to the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal.
For China, the Philippines is unwittingly or foolishly aiding a ‘proxy war’ that is part of an American-led containment strategy.
Far from fully aligning with the US against China, however, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration has sought to keep relations with the Asian superpower on an even keel.
Ahead of the two-plus-two meeting, Manila and Beijing negotiated an interim agreement over the contested Second Thomas Shoal to de-escalate tensions. Both sides have provided contradictory accounts of their new pact, but the Philippines seems to have recalibrated its “transparency initiative” and agreed to “notify” Chinese counterparts on any resupply missions to the shoal to avoid any unnecessary provocation.
To be sure, America’s expanded defense aid package is too modest to meaningfully alter the balance of military power in the region. Overall, Manila hopes to achieve a new equilibrium in the South China Sea from a relative position of strength by doubling down on its alliance with Washington as well as accelerating its military modernization.
Hyperdrive mode
Ahead of their latest visit to Manila, the US defense and diplomatic chiefs dropped by Tokyo for two-plus-two meeting with Japanese counterparts. Shortly before, Japan and the Philippines finalized a new defense pact, slugged as a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), to boost bilateral military interoperability, joint exercises and exchange of sophisticated weapons systems.
Earlier this year, Washington hosted the first-ever Japan-Philippine-US (JAPHUS) trilateral summit to deepen trilateral defense cooperation with an eye on China. US President Joseph Biden underscored his “iron-clad commitment” to its two Asian allies, especially amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits.
The fourth Philippine-US two-plus-two meeting was particularly important in light of multiple near-clashes between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea.
In one, a Philippine naval officer lost his finger following a tense standoff with Chinese maritime forces in mid-June. In others, multiple Philippine naval and coast guard vessels have been damaged after being rammed by much larger Chinese coast guard vessels.
In response, a growing number of Filipino strategists have openly called for the invocation of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty to counter China’s increasingly aggressive tactics.
Heading into a heated election season, the outgoing Biden administration, which is already grappling with open conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, is seemingly in no mood to pick a fight with China. But it has sought to reassure its regional allies of its continued commitment and leadership in the face of a resurgent China.
Accordingly, Blinken and Austin decided to hold their latest two-plus-two meeting in Manila, instead of in Washington, in a clear show of support to the Southeast Asian nation.
This was the third visit by Blinken to Manila in the past two years, while Austin visited the Asian capital for a third time, including an extremely fruitful meeting with former president Rodrigo Duterte in mid-2021.
Blinken hailed the latest meeting as “genuinely historic” for spawning a new era of defense cooperation between the two allies.
“It’s, I think, really evidence of a steady drumbeat of very high-level engagements between our countries that are covering the full range of issues and opportunities that bring us together – not only security but also economic – and we’re truly grateful for this partnership,” the US diplomatic chief said during his visit to Manila.
For his part, Austin underscored how the new $500 million defense package will “boost security collaboration with our oldest treaty ally in this region” and characterized the expanded FMF as an “unprecedented provision of security assistance, which is an order of magnitude greater than what we’ve recently provided to the Philippines on an annual basis…[and] a critical enabler of the Philippine defense moderation already underway.”
A balanced approach
Philippine defense chief Gilbert Teodoro vowed that the new defense package will be spent in accordance with a mutually negotiated “Security Assistance Sector Roadmap”, which includes multiple priorities, including “hardening capabilities” in the realm of cybersecurity; “secur[ing] the Philippines’ credible deterrent posture” by enhancing the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ naval and air force capabilities and expanding facilities and instituting upgrades at multiple EDCA bases in the northern and western regions of the Philippines.
“Every peso or dollar spent on hardening Philippine capabilities to defend itself and to deter unlawful aggression will be a plus against any threat actor, whether it be China or anyone,” Teodoro added, emphasizing that the new investments are also for non-combat operations such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in light of the Philippines’ profound vulnerabilities to climate change.
The two sides also agreed to establish a “Roles, Missions, Capabilities Working Group” to enhance interoperability and policy coordination on defense issues. Despite the lofty rhetoric, however, Manila is still hedging its bets. During a courtesy call with the visiting US defense and diplomatic chiefs, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr quipped about America’s worrying domestic politics ahead of polarizing elections.
The Filipino president said that he was “surprised” by the visit of top American officials “considering how interesting your political situation has become back in the States.”
Key US allies like the Philippines are clearly concerned about political instability and major foreign policy resets after the November elections, especially if Donald Trump regains the White House.
Meanwhile, the new US defense package to the Philippines is both small compared to multi-billion-dollar aid given to US partners in the Middle East and Europe, and too miniscule to dent China’s military preponderance in the South China Sea.
Cognizant of the limitations of its US security alliance, Manila is seeking to stabilize its rocky relations with China. Shortly after the two-plus-two meeting, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo confirmed a provisional agreement with China, which was reaffirmed during his meeting with Chinese counterpart Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Laos.
Last week, the Philippines successfully conducted a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal without incident, though Manila rejected China’s claim that it had sought de facto permission to resupply its military base on the feature.
According to the Philippine diplomatic chief, the two sides had only agreed to “exchange information” and not to any prior coordination or permission-based arrangement. Beijing has claimed that the Philippines had agreed to “inform China in advance and after on-site verification”
“On the issue of notification, I think the more accurate term is ‘exchange of information’, which is exactly what we did with China, and – both of us,” Manalo said, directly rejecting Beijing’s interpretation of the arrangement as a de facto recognition of China’s claim over the disputed land feature.
“The fact that the (re)supply was a relative success I think indicates that it’s something that we are committed to pursue in succeeding supply missions, provided, of course, China also adheres to the understanding,” he added, insisting that it was China that “mischaracterized” and “misrepresented” the arrangement for propaganda purposes.
No one is under any illusion that the temporary arrangement will resolve the tensions in the South China Sea but it’s clear that all sides, including the US, are in no mood to escalate tensions ahead of US elections in November.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian
10% for Mr Marcos Jr is a $50M boost to the Marcos family treasure. /S