Philippines roping in more allies in South China Sea fight

MANILA – August is shaping up as a busy month for defense diplomacy in the Philippines.

In a historic first, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius dropped by Manila over the weekend to explore closer military cooperation and underscore shared concerns over maritime stability in the region.

In a meeting with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr, the two emerging allies celebrated 70 years of diplomatic relations and, crucially, emphasized their growing convergence in strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.

In a joint statement, the two defense chiefs “strongly opposed any unilateral attempt to advance expansive claims, especially through force or coercion,” referring to the latest incidents in the South China Sea.

Over the past year, Chinese and Philippine maritime forces have clashed on more than half a dozen occasions, culminating in the injury of several Philippine servicemen and damage to numerous Philippine vessels.

Pistorious’ visit came barely a week after a historic two-plus-two meeting between Philippine and American diplomatic and defense chiefs in Manila, with the US announcing a new US$500 million military aid package to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

Flush with cash and growing support from both the Philippine government and key allies, Teodoro told his latest high-profile guest that the AFP was “looking to engage Germany as a possible supplier” of advanced weapons systems, especially in the area of “command and control, anti-access aerial denial, maritime domain, [and] aerial domain and in higher technologically capable equipment.”

The Philippines aims to spend up to $35 billion to modernize its naval, air force and cyber capacity over the next decade. The US aid package alone could reach up to $3 billion over the next five years, the Philippine Ambassador to Washington DC, Jose “Babe” Romualdez, told this writer.

“Our AFP will be able to modernize much faster than originally planned…we can [fast-track] our 10-year modernization program by [several] years,” Romualdez said in a recent interview.

“[But] we are not just dependent on the US…[since] we are using our own resources, and other like-minded countries are also prepared to help…,” he added, emphasizing Manila’s own “multi-alignment” strategy.  

Shortly before the German defense chief’s visit, Japan and the Philippines conducted their first-ever joint drills in the South China Sea. Last month, the two US allies signed a historic Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) pact, which aims to regularize and expand military cooperation and defense deals between Manila and Tokyo.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is also kicking off its first-ever joint coast guard exercises with Vietnam this week, underscoring Manila’s effort to reach out to nations in Southeast Asia. By all indications, the Marcos Jr administration is determined to build a wide network of partners and allies to enhance its strategic position against an increasingly assertive China.

Deadlock in the South China Sea

Tensions in the South China Sea have eased in recent weeks, thanks to an “interim agreement” between Manila and Beijing.

The decision to strike a temporary deal came on the heels of multiple clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces over disputed land features in the South China Sea, most notably over the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines hosts a de facto military base aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre vessel.

Over the past year, China, which claims the shoal as part of its so-called “nine-dash line”, has tightened the noose around the Philippine base in the past year and vehemently opposed any efforts by Manila to reinforce its presence.

Since the Second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide elevation, bereft of water and sufficient resources, it cannot support sustained habitation without regular resupply.

The Philippines claims that its resupply missions to the shoal are purely for humanitarian purposes but China suspects that the Southeast Asian nation has been fortifying its military facilities with construction materials.

Reports suggest that the Philippine Navy has successfully shipped sufficient materials to stabilize the collapsing facility for at least another decade.

But top Philippine experts such as former Philippine Navy Rear Admiral Rommel Ong have told this author that there is a need to also strengthen communications, electronics and overall defensive capabilities aboard the BRP Sierra Madre.

In response, China has stepped up its effort to intimidate and even intercept Philippine resupply missions to the area with growing ferocity.

The upshot was a perilous confrontation in mid-June, when Chinese Coast Guard forces aggressively boarded and disarmed Philippine naval officers en route to the Second Thomas Shoal.

Chinese forces seized seven M4 rifles and other supplies, and ended up wounding several Filipino soldiers, one of whom lost his thumb in the ensuing skirmish.

Eager to de-escalate tensions, the Philippine government refused to call in American help under the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and, instead, negotiated a temporary pact with Beijing.

Philippine-style multi-alignment 

“Both sides continue to recognize the need to deescalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said following the successful negotiation of a transitional agreement. 

For its part, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that the two sides agreed to “[effectively] managing the situation at [Second Thomas Shoal] and reached provisional arrangement with the Philippines on humanitarian resupply of living necessities.”

But neither side released the text of the agreement. If anything, Beijing and Manila publicly adopted radically divergent interpretations of the deal.

China insists that the Philippines has agreed to “notify” and, in effect, seek permission before conducting any resupply mission, but top Filipino authorities have insisted on the non-negotiability of Philippine sovereign rights and insist they only agreed to “exchange of information” on the ground.

“This is a very serious situation we are facing,” Ambassador Romualdez told the author. “We can’t just sit down and allow another country to do whatever they want and claim another country’s territory,” he continued.

While the Marcos Jr administration’s bilateral alliance with the US has moved into “hyperdrive” mode, the Philippines is adamant that it’s not aligning with America against China.

For the Southeast Asian nation, its actions are purely defensive and its foreign policy is geared toward developing a wider network of partnerships beyond Washington, from Europe to Japan and Southeast Asia.

During his visit to Manila, the German defense minister underscored his support for the 2016 arbitral tribunal award, under the auspices of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, which rejected the bulk of China’s expansive claims in adjacent waters.

“This ruling remains valid without any exceptions. It is our obligation to strengthen the maritime order, and we are living up to it,” Pistorius said. “We need to do more than stand up for UNCLOS. We need to contribute to de-escalation. This is only possible if we keep all channels of communication open including those with China.”

While negotiating major defense pacts with Germany, the Philippines is already cashing in on its booming ties with Japan following the finalization of a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) last month.

“This activity was part of the ongoing efforts to strengthen regional and international cooperation towards realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the AFP said following the historic Philippine-Japan joint drills in the South China Sea.

Over the coming months and years, Manila and Tokyo are expected to conduct ever-larger and regularized military activities while negotiating the transfer of modern weapons systems.

To maintain balance its foreign relations, however, the Philippines is also cultivating a quasi-alliance with like-minded Southeast Asian nations, most notably Vietnam, which also has its own share of concerns over China’s maritime assertiveness.

This week, the two sides conducted a historic joint coast guard drill and aim to explore tighter defense cooperation. Crucially, the two ASEAN members aim to forge maritime border delimitation agreements to address their overlapping areas of claim in the South China Sea.

“This [drill] is important because we’re building a partnership, and we are showing the world that it is possible for two countries that have a problem in the West Philippine Sea to still cooperate,” Philippine Rear-Admiral Balilo told reporters.

“We can set a template to build a stronger relationship that other claimants may follow in the future,” he added, underscoring Manila’s commitment to maritime cooperation with neighbors and a range of like-minded powers.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X @Richeydarian