A storm of criticism and justification has erupted over the Japanese government’s decision to sell Patriot surface-to-air guided missiles made in Japan to the US. Widely seen as an effort to restock an American arsenal depleted by shipments to Ukraine, it has raised doubts over the Biden administration’s proclaimed commitment to the security of Japan and the Asia-Pacific.
It is also part of a policy aimed at building up Japan’s defense industry by turning the once-pacifist country into an exporter of weapons. Under revised guidelines for the overseas transfer of military equipment approved by Japan’s National Security Council on December 22, weapons made in Japan under foreign license may now be shipped to the country from which the license was received. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries makes Patriot missiles under license from Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.
Japan’s basic Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology do not allow the export of deadly weapons to countries involved in armed conflict, but they do permit indirect lethal support of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine and the depletion of Japan’s own stock of defense equipment at the request of the US.
According to NHK, Japan’s national broadcaster, “The exports come at Washington’s request. Sources close to Japan’s Defense Ministry say the US wants to make up for a shortage of Patriot missiles it faces due to its military assistance to Ukraine.”
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the decision short-sighted. “Most assessments,” she said, “suggest that Japan doesn’t have enough air defense to defend its own air bases in the event of a Chinese attack. To draw down its stocks further incurs a significant risk.”
“It says something about the Biden administration’s priorities,” she continued. “They are willing to prioritize arming Ukraine over Asia despite their pronouncement that Asia is the priority theater for the United States.”
In October 2022, Japan’s Defense Ministry announced that it had only 60% of the number of missiles needed to counter potential threats from North Korea and China.
Elbridge Colby, a prominent US defense consultant, doesn’t like it either. He posted the following comments on X (Twitter):
“The Biden Admin is asking Japan to give Patriots and South Korea to give shells to Ukraine, and then has the audacity to claim China and Asia are priorities. Give me a break. DC is at fault, but Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei shouldn’t go along with this. They’ll be holding the bag.”
“It’s not like Japan might very well need those Patriots to defend itself against China, which has the world’s largest missile inventory, right!? Kishida himself said ‘Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow.’ Ok. So don’t you need air defense then?”
Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, is co-founder of The Marathon Initiative, a think tank focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for sustained great power competition. He believes that, “Without question, the top external threat to America is China – by far.”
Ken Moriyasu, Nikkei Asia correspondent in Washington, DC, posted:
Japan’s Patriot-missile transfer to US stuns Indo-Pacific watchers:
1: The Biden administration’s pacing threat is Russia.
2: It doesn’t see China invading Taiwan soon.
3: Japan needs to say no.
On the other hand, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated that “This decision will contribute to the security of Japan and to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region by ensuring that US forces, in close cooperation with the Japan Self-Defense Forces, will continue to maintain a credible deterrence and response capability.”
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi agreed, stating that “This holds significant meaning in terms of further strengthening the Japan-US alliance. It will contribute not only to Japan’s security but also [to] the peace and stability of the wider Indo-Pacific region.”
Hayashi did not say how it would do that, but it should keep President Biden happy. And, as Gabriel Honrada writes in Asia Times, Japan is shifting from land-based to sea-based missile defense.
According to an unnamed US government official cited by The Wall Street Journal, Japan is ready to transfer dozens of Patriot missiles to the US perhaps as soon as the first quarter of 2024. According to a Japanese official, the number of missiles and the timing have not yet been decided. Japan is also reported to be considering the export of artillery shells made under license from BAE Systems to the UK, also to provide indirect support for Ukraine.
US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emmanuel called Japan’s decision a “significant example of Japan’s shared commitment to deterrence,” adding that “It helps us manage our inventory of Patriots, given Ukraine and the Middle East, with a little more flexibility and strategic deployment.”
Japan’s left-leaning Asahi Shimbun wrote that the revision of weapons export regulations did not require changing any laws, so it was not discussed in the Diet – which, in any case, has been out of session since December 14.
Noting that the changes were made in closed-door sessions by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito, the Asahi wrote, “In effect, the public was kept out of the loop for what constitutes a major policy course change by the government.”
On top of this, and the rising cost of living, the LDP is embroiled in a fund-raising scandal that has resulted in the dismissal of several Cabinet ministers and investigation of many more members of the parliament. This has caused public support for Prime Minister Kishida and his government to collapse.
According to a nationwide public opinion poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun on December 16 and 17, disapproval of the prime minister and his cabinet has risen to 79%, the worst showing since 1947. Support for the cabinet has fallen to 16%, the lowest level since Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s approval rating dropped to 15% due to his feeble handling of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in. Support for the LDP has dropped to 17%, the lowest level in more than a decade.
When the Diet reconvenes in January, the future of Prime Minister Kishida’s government is likely to dominate the headlines. The export of Patriot missiles appears to be a done deal.
Follow this writer on X: @ScottFo83517667