US President Joe Biden has mobilized his three top national security officials to pressure Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept US plans for ending the Gaza war and future Middle East peace.
Biden wants Netanyahu to change battlefield tactics and prepare for negotiations leading to the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu is resisting both proposals, setting off a diplomatic crisis not between the US and a traditional adversary but between Washington and a close ally.
A key policy concern for Biden has been to keep the war from spreading elsewhere in the Middle East and cement alliances with key Arab countries. For Netanyahu, the goals are both to end forever the Palestinian quest for statehood and cement control over territory beyond Israel between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea.
This is but the latest in a long line of policy disputes between the US, which has long been Israel’s primary military and diplomatic supporter, and the Jewish state, the major economic and military power in the Middle East.
Back in 1956, President Dwight Eisenhower pressured an expansionist Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, which it briefly occupied during the Suez Crisis. At the beginning of the 21st century, President Barack Obama clashed with Netanyahu over US plans to cement a nuclear proliferation deal with Iran.
Obama signed an accord but his successor, Donald Trump, scotched the agreement, to Netanyahu’s delight.
Now, the Palestinian issue has taken center stage in US-Israeli relations. The tug of war centers on wildly different views about how to end the Gaza War, and how to forge a lasting peace after it’s over.
Beyond the purely geopolitical concerns, current US-Israeli disagreements are colored by the different political needs of each leader: Biden is up for reelection this November and wants to show foreign policy strength.
He also needs to placate voting blocs that either support Israel or the Palestinians and want Biden to more clearly take their side.
Netanyahu, already under fire at home for failing to deter Hamas’ October 7, 2023, invasion of southern Israel, might fall from power if he fails to destroy Hamas, as he has promised.
To that end, Netanyahu has repeatedly rebuffed advice from Biden to alter battlefield tactics that cost the lives of thousands of Palestinian lives.
Biden has asked Netanyahu not to overrun the southern Gaza Strip town of Rafah, reputedly the last Hamas stronghold in the enclave.
In addition, he has requested Netanyahu to accept post-war negotiations over the creation of a Palestinian state in Gaza as well as the West Bank.
Netanyahu resists the demands on the grounds that only “total victory” can safeguard future Israeli security. In that view, a Palestinian state would represent a perpetual threat to Israel.
David Makovsky, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Peace think tank, whittled down the contending views to their core: “Israel wants to know whether the US is committed to an Israeli military victory. The US wants to know that Israel is equally committed to winning the peace through a clear political strategy.”
Biden’s recent cancellation of an Israeli request for 2,000-pound bombs to drop on Rafah suggested to Netanyahu that he can’t count on unfettered American support.
He told a television interviewer that the Rafah assault was going forward anyway. “Ultimately we do what we have to do to protect the life of our nation,” he intoned.
Netanyahu’s dismissal of US concerns prompted Biden to launch a frenzy of diplomatic activity. During the past three weeks, he dispatched Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on separate missions to seek an end to the war and create conditions for lasting peace.
The chief sweetener for Netanyahu is the lure of getting Saudi Arabia, the richest and best-armed Arab state, to recognize Israel, which will only happen if he agrees to set in motion the creation of a Palestinian state.
Biden’s diplomats were also trying to organize international peacekeeping and police forces for Gaza and observers to monitor the border between Gaza and Egypt to open it for the transit of civilian aid into the enclave. The monitors would assure Israel that no weaponry or other war material entered.
The State Department has suggested the peacekeepers be called the Temporary Security Mission for Gaza, which notably lacks the term “force.” Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would provide police units, to be nominally authorized by a council of Palestinians.
The US would provide a kind of viceroy to oversee the entire operation and coordinate with Israel, the Arab peacekeepers and the new Palestinian authorities.
In addition, Biden’s envoys are trying to drum up billions of dollar pledges from friendly Arab states to fund reconstruction of war-devastated Gaza Strip communities.
Finally, CIA chief Burns was in Paris over the weekend to negotiate the immediate release of some 130 Israeli hostages held by Hamas if the comprehensive plan is approved by Israel.
Theoretically, the sum of all this would persuade Netanyahu to stop the war, pull his troops from Gaza and accept the so-called “two-state solution” negotiations.
Except…the Israeli leader is demanding that the Hamas-held hostages be released unconditionally, even in advance of the war’s formal end. Any ceasefire must be temporary, combat will only cease with the military and political dismantling of Hamas.
In defiance of Biden’s request that Israel not attack Rafah, Israel is already bombing and shelling the town and sending in commandoes. Hamas retaliated by shelling Tel Aviv over the weekend, explosive demonstration that the militant outfit hasn’t been dismantled yet.
The attraction of normal relations with Saudi Arabia is also likely insufficient to persuade Netanyahu to surrender his rejection of Palestinian statehood. Instead, he insists on the creation of a cooperative authority in a non-sovereign entity under Israeli control.
Foreign peacekeepers, rather than Israeli troops, would occupy the enclave. The Palestinian Authority would play no role and be consigned to running current scattered West Bank cantons in perpetuity.
In any event, there is a timetable gap for reaching any resolution to the war. An eager Biden wants to push the issue to the background of public interest before the November 5 election. Latest polls show he is trailing former president Donald Trump, who claims he could quickly resolve the Gaza imbroglio.
Biden’s effort to straddle Israeli and Palestinian goals is eroding electoral support from at least two usually loyal constituencies: Jewish-American voters who are concerned Biden is unduly tough on Israel and Netanyahu; and Arab-American voters who think he has countenanced an unbridled Israeli slaughter of Gaza civilians.
And then there’s the distinctly American political campaign habit of charging one’s opponent of being soft on some villain or another. Trump is taking Netanyahu’s side and accusing Biden of “siding with terrorists.”
Meanwhile, an unhurried Netanyahu has already said the conflict will continue until the end of this year and perhaps into next.
Pressure on Netanyahu is also coming from home, albeit not to end the war quickly but to define its endgame. Benny Gantz, a minister in Netanyahu’s cabinet, set a June 8 deadline for Netanyahu to detail plans for freeing the hostages and wants details on how a docile, future Gaza authority will come into being.
Moreover, Gantz has said Israel should work to establish relations with Saudi Arabia, despite the lack of a Palestinian state.
Gantz’s dissident stands have their limits. He has sided with Netanyahu’s veto of Palestinian statehood and said instead that some sort of cooperative authority should administer both Gaza and the West Bank, which is partially governed by the Palestinian Authority, a Hamas rival.
Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has chimed in with his own post-war proposals for Gaza, which also all fall short of statehood. He has called for the creation of “Palestinian entities” to administer Gaza, with an international force to provide security in the enclave.
Gallant also suggested moving the Gaza Strip population into “humanitarian bubbles” to be policed by Palestinian wardens armed with light weapons.
Finally, Israel’s army chief of staff Herzi Halevi has pressed Netanyahu to come up with a “day-after” peace strategy, Israeli news outlets reported.
Netanyahu has dismissed all these suggestions, saying any discussion of political outcomes must wait until the war has ended. He has called early speculative advice “washed-up words” that would mean “defeat for Israel.”
Hamas has not fully laid out its demands for the war’s end and beyond in detail. It has called broadly for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza before releasing hostages and an international investigation into Israeli abuses, in both Gaza and the West Bank.