On February 25, 1985, Soviet citizens went to the polls for one-party local elections, and as customary, top leaders cast ballots in public.
General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR Konstantin Chernenko publicly appeared, as was customary for top Soviet leaders, casting a ballot, even if only on live TV. His performance was closely anticipated because he had been out of the public eye for two months.
He was shown at a Kremlin polling station, supposedly. Surrounded by government officials and newspaper photographers, he stood up and leaned on an aide. He looked gaunt. He mumbled a few greetings. Instead of reassuring citizens that the USSR was in sound hands the broadcast created an unsettling stir nationwide: Who, exactly, is in charge of the massive, one-party, nuclear-armed state?
In 2024, the United States, ostensibly an open political system in which such a spectacle could not take place, is facing a similar, if rather drawn-out drama over its leader’s health. A visibly weak and confused President Joe Biden made a bumbling appearance at a debate last month with his political rival, ex-President Donald Trump. Since then, his self-portrait as a capable leader – shared publicly by members of his Democratic Party and favorable media stories – has fallen apart.
He is under siege by erstwhile backers who want him replaced in the election.
The parallel between the Biden situation and enfeebled Soviet leaders of the 1980s – Chernenko was the last of three sickly top officials who died in office – has brought on comparisons with the decaying USSR.
Four years ago, Princeton University historian Harold James penned an essay entitled “Late Soviet America,” in which he described the US under Trump as being in Soviet-like political decline. “If it wasn’t obvious already, the whole world now knows that the US lacks any strategic orientation or cohesive executive leadership,” James wrote.
Last month, conservative commentator Niall Ferguson offered an update. He outlined Soviet-style weaknesses of the US, including being overstretched by foreign responsibilities with a military saddled with antiquated equipment, falling educational and health standards and low economic productivity in a heavily indebted economy.
“Could you tell me about another advanced society where living standards declined, mortality rates rose, where 100,000 people a year die of overdoses? I can only think of one other example, and that’s the Soviet Union?” Ferguson asked.
The Soviet-comparison is underpinned by the comparative ages of top leaders when they died in office. Leonid Brezhnev was 75 and had been in ill health for at least two years. His successor, Yuri Andropov, was only 68, but died after spending just 15 months in office after suffering severe heart problems.
Chernenko died at 73, just two weeks after visiting the Potemkin voting box, having lasted only 11 months, He had long bouts of heart trouble, lung disease and cirrhosis of the liver.
Biden is 81 and on Tuesday came down with Covid (for the third time). Trump is 78.
The secretive USSR routinely hid health reports of its leaders. Their deaths, once announced, often led to intrigue and vicious power struggles. After Josef Stalin’s death in 1953, Nikita Khrushchev eliminated his top rival, secret police chief Laventriy Beria, by having him executed for treason.
The day of Chernenko’s last public appearance, a spry Mikhail Gorbachev also appeared on TV at a real ballot box, in the presence of Russian and foreign reporters. He had already been signing off on government decrees in Chernenko’s name.
Intrigue is a feature of efforts to stop Biden from running for President again and Biden’s counter-effort to hang on. Until the debate, his geriatric infirmities were kept out of the news by outlets that had favored him over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential vote.
Once the debate debacle was over, some of the same outlets called for him to exit the reelection stage. In an odd admission at CNN, the news network, a broadcaster acknowledged Biden’s mental health was in decline two years before the notorious debate performance.
“This is one of those, you know, it’s the classic open secret,” said longtime CNN political reporter Chuck Todd. “It’s the story everybody knows and … everybody was afraid to talk about.”
After the debacle, Biden went on a whirlwind tour of political rallies and radio and television appearances. He said he would run and win.
Verbal missteps marred his performances. At the NATO summit he hosted in Washington, he introduced visiting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as his arch-enemy Russian President Vladimir Putin. “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine, who has as much courage as he has determination,” Biden intoned. “Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin.”
He also referred to his own Vice President, Kamala Harris, as “Vice President Trump.”
His own Democratic Party’s political assault on Biden is being played out in public statements and anonymous leaks to newspapers and television. At least 20 party members of Congress and two Senators have asked Biden to exit the campaign. It’s a complicated request.
Biden already won more than enough votes within his party in nomination elections to grant him victory at the Democratic Party nominating convention next month. Biden would have to release his supporters from voting for him in order to open up the convention. Will his current vice president automatically step in, and inherit Biden voters? Her supporters are already warning party leaders not to try to push her aside in favor of someone else.
A series of leaks to the media have exposed efforts by top party officials to persuade Biden to leave. Among these reports, the role of former Congressional leader Nancy Pelosi is taking center stage. She has been talking to Biden about dropping out.
Pelosi is a legendary fundraiser for Democratic candidates, so her efforts reflect the opinion of skeptical, rich backers of the party.
Some of the latest reports suggest Biden is willing to consider dropping out, but there’s been no public indication of that so far from him.
In his most recent interview, the president said he would only quit if doctors told him – adding that “age gives a little wisdom.” Presumably, that should mean Pelosi and her advice win the wisdom contest. After all, she is 84 years old.