MANILA – “What we will do is to continue defending the Philippines, the maritime territory of the Philippines, the rights of our fishermen to catch fish in areas where they are doing it for hundreds of years already,” Philippine President Marcos Jr told reporters amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.
This week, China openly warned authorities in Manila “not to provoke or stir up trouble” following the Philippine Coast Guard’s decision to cut a 300-meter floating barrier installed by Chinese forces around the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
Rich in fisheries resources and vital to the livelihood of coastal communities in nearby Philippine provinces, the shoal has been under Beijing’s de facto control following a months-long naval showdown with Manila in 2012.
Located just over 200 kilometers off its coast, Manila claims the shoal as part of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. In contrast, China’s nearest province of Hainan is nearly 900 kilometers away.
A 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) found the resource-rich lagoon within the shoal as a
common fishing ground” for multiple littoral states in the area. Accordingly, it censured China for blocking other countries, especially the Philippines, from exercising its sovereign rights in the area.
“[I]n terms of taking down the barrier, I don’t see what else we could do,” the Filipino president lamented, seemingly perplexed over China’s recent actions and public threats. “I don’t understand why this happened,” Marcos Jr added.
Peeved by Manila’s defiance, China’s foreign ministry has underscored its commitment to “uphold the sovereignty and maritime rights and interests of the Huangyan island [Scarborough Shoal.]”
Shortly after, China flexed its muscles by issuing a warning over planned military exercises in some parts of the South China Sea without providing specific details.
China, which earlier hoped for a “new golden era” of bilateral relations under Marcos Jr., is also seemingly perplexed by the sharp deterioration in ties in recent months.
As a result, there are growing worries over the possibility that the two neighbors will sleepwalk into conflict, with Manila’s allies in the West also preparing for contingencies in the South China Sea.
Not long ago, Manila and Beijing enjoyed an unprecedented era of warm relations. During former president Rodrigo Duterte’s term, top Chinese diplomats described the Filipino leader as Beijing’s “most respected friend.”
Shortly after his emphatic election victory, largely thanks to the support of the Dutertes, Marcos Jr vowed to “shift [bilateral ties] to a higher gear.” Accordingly, the Filipino president chose – similar to his pro-China predecessor – Beijing, rather than Tokyo or Washington, as his first major foreign destination.
Instead of solidifying years-long rapprochement between the two nations, however, Marcos Jr’s relatively short visit only revealed the yawning gap between the two sides on territorial issues.
By all accounts, the Filipino president returned home empty-handed, with Beijing offering no concrete concessions either in the South China Sea or on largely unfulfilled infrastructure investment pledges made to Duterte.
But the sticking point, according to former Philippine associate justice Antonio Carpio, was Beijing’s refusal to budge on the Reed Bank, an energy-rich area off the coast of the Philippine western island of Palawan.
According to the influential Filipino magistrate, the Duterte administration initially explored the possibility of jointly developing energy resources in the area under a “service contract”, which would affirm Philippine sovereignty over the disputed area.
Carpio, who has been in touch with senior Philippine officials, told this writer that Beijing’s mixed signals on the modality of the joint energy development deal eventually scuttled the negotiations under the Duterte administration.
Contrary to his expectations, however, Marcos Jr failed to secure any concession on the issue during his own trip to Beijing earlier this year.
With the Philippines’ main source of natural gas in Malampaya running out in coming years, the Marcos Jr administration is desperate to develop energy resources in the Reed Bank. As a result, Carpio told the author, the Filipino president “decided to call on traditional allies” to enhance the Philippines’ position in the sea.
Over the succeeding months, Marcos Jr greenlighted expanded defense ties not only with the US under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), but is also pursuing a Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan and has signed a new strategic partnership pact with Australia.
The Filipino president is also exploring defense acquisitions from partners in South Korea, India and Europe.
Emboldened by growing support from traditional allies and Marcos Jr’s more assertive stance, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Philippine Navy (PN) officials have upped the ante.
Accordingly, Philippine maritime forces have doubled down on asserting the Southeast Asian nation’s position in the area, most especially over the contested Second Thomas Shoal.
Crucially, the PCG has also proactively exposed and publicized violent encounters with Chinese counterparts in the contested waters, while the PN has exposed environmental degradation by suspected Chinese militia forces.
This set the stage for the latest round of tensions. Having failed to deter Philippine forces from resupplying their marine detachment on the Second Thomas Shoal, China proceeded to tighten the noose around Scarborough Shoal by installing a 300-meter floating barrier in the fisheries-rich area.
The PCG responded immediately, releasing video footage that showed its personnel, posing as fishermen, cutting down the Chinese-installed barriers.
Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano, a former Philippine military chief, backed the move as “well within its rights” since China has no right to unilaterally block Filipino fishermen from accessing the area. The heavily publicized move outraged Beijing, which warned the Philippines against “stir[ring] up trouble.”
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin shot back, warning: “We advise the Philippines not to provoke or stir up trouble” and reiterated that Beijing “firmly upholds the sovereignty and maritime rights and interests of [Scarborough Shoal].”
The US has made clear that any attack on Philippine troops, aircraft or vessels in the South China Sea will automatically invoke the two allies’ Mutual Defense Treaty. For their part, Australia, Japan and a host of European powers have vowed to support Philippine efforts to defend its sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone.
The Southeast Asian nation is expected to conduct more regular joint patrols with key allies in the area, while the US Pentagon has regularly provided over-the-horizon support by deploying drones and frigates in Philippine waters.
They have also blamed China for raising tensions through massive reclamation projects, which have created large-scale military facilities across disputed features while unilaterally claiming up to 90% of the South China Sea basin in contravention of international law.
“Over the past decade, [China] has added more than 3,200 acres of land to its seven occupied outposts in the Spratly Islands, which now feature airfields, berthing areas, and resupply facilities to support persistent PRC military and paramilitary presence in the region,” US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Lindsey Ford told a US House subcommittee earlier this week while squarely painting China as the main source of instability in the region.
“Since early 2018, we have seen the PRC steadily equip its Spratly Island outposts — including Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross — with an increasing array of military capabilities, including advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, long-range surface-to-air missile systems, J-20 stealth fighter jets, laser and jamming equipment, and military radar and signals intelligence capabilities,” the US official said.
Philippine authorities, however, have made it clear that they will be at the forefront of defending the country’s sovereign rights in the area. In its National Security Policy for 2023 to 2028, the Marcos Jr administration said that external threats, mainly from China, will be a top national security priority.
“The current strategy now is working, but it’s just an improvement… it’s a whole of government approach to issues,” said Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, commander of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Western Command (WesCom) overseeing the South China Sea.
Philippine top commanders have vowed to confront China’s “grey zone tactics” and “dangerous maneuvers”, with key allies providing operational and over-the-horizon support.
All of a sudden, China is confronting a much more assertive and confident Philippines, which no longer shuns openly defying its giant rival in the contested waters. It’s unlikely, however, the Asian superpower will sit by idly, thus raising the specter of a head-on showdown in the South China Sea in the near future.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @Richeydarian