China-Philippines one step closer to armed conflict

MANILA – Barely one month since China imposed new maritime regulations for the South China Sea and yet another major incident involving Philippine and Chinese maritime forces has erupted in the disputed waters.

Manila and Beijing have traded accusations following a collision on Monday (June 17) between their vessels over the Second Thomas Shoal, a feature which hosts a de facto Philippine naval outpost aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre vessel.

The Philippines’ interagency task force overseeing the country’s waters in the South China Sea, known by Manila as the “West Philippine Sea”, accused Chinese maritime forces of ramming and towing a Philippine resupply vessel en route to the disputed land feature.

Manila has claimed Philippine servicemen suffered “bodily injury” while Philippine vessels sustained damage, raising the possibility of an armed confrontation between the two neighbors.

“China’s dangerous and reckless behavior in the West Philippine Sea shall be resisted by the Armed Forces of the Philippines,” Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said in a spirited statement following the latest incident. “China’s actions are the true obstacles to peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he added, underscoring a new nadir in bilateral relations.

For its part, China accused the Philippine resupply vessel of “deliberately and dangerously” approaching a Chinese ship, thus resulting in a moderate collision following the latter’s “illegally intru[sion]” into Chinese-claimed waters – a charge that Manila has rejected as “deceptive and misleading” following months of intimidation and aggressive actions by Chinse maritime forces in the area.

What makes the tussle between the Philippines and China particularly alarming is the potential involvement of the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with Manila. Indeed, there are growing fears of multiple flashpoints across the disputed waters, which would only raise the prospect of armed confrontation and the potential for direct US military involvement.

In a public statement, the US State Department squarely blamed China for its latest “provocations” following half a dozen earlier collisions and incidents over the Second Thomas Shoal in the past year alone.

“[Chinese] vessels’ dangerous and deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, blocking maneuvers and towing damaged Philippine vessels, endangered the lives of Philippine service members, is reckless, and threatens regional peace and stability,” a US State Department statement said.

There is little reason to think that tensions will subside anytime soon. Under newly imposed maritime rules, the Chinese Coast Guard has been mandated by Beijing to detain suspected trespassers in the so-called nine-dash line for up to 60 days without trial.

In response, the Philippine Coast Guard deployed two vessels to patrol Philippine-claimed waters to ensure the safety and well-being of Philippine fishermen roaming the hotly-contested areas, particularly in the Scarborough Shoal, situated just over 100 nautical miles from Philippine shores and about 345 nautical miles from the Second Thomas Shoal.

By all indications, both sides are digging in. As a far weaker party militarily, the Philippines has doubled down on both its diplomatic rhetoric as well as military drills with Western allies.

Earlier this year, the Philippine defense chief accused China of trying to “bully” Manila “into submission” or “appeasement” through an increasingly muscular “gray zone” strategy in the South China Sea, which he said involved aggressive tactics that fall just short of armed confrontation.

He went so far as to describe the Asian superpower as an “existential issue” to the Philippines, underscoring the depth of angst in Manila.

To bolster its strategic position, the Philippines is enhancing its deterrence capabilities while regularizing high-stakes drills with allied nations. According to recent satellite imagery, the Philippines’ first BrahMos anti-ship missile base is beginning to take shape at a naval facility near the disputed waters.

The Philippine Navy’s US$375 million Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Acquisition Project kicked into action following India’s delivery of the much-vaunted supersonic missile defense system earlier this year.

This has coincided with America’s growing deployment of increasingly sophisticated weapons systems for major drills in the Philippines, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) as well as the US Army’s new MRC/Typhon system, which is capable of firing Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles.

The two sides are also preparing for a possible full invasion by an external power as well as a major contingency in Taiwan, with the US Army’s Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center introduced to the Philippines this year.

There is rising talk in the Philippines about the possibility of granting the Pentagon permission to deploy several sophisticated missile defense systems to designated Philippine bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), especially those facing both the western portions of the South China Sea and Taiwan’s southern shores.

Meanwhile, the Philippines has also stepped up its multilateral naval drills with like-minded powers. It was recently joined by the US, Japan and Canada for a two-day drill in the South China Sea in order to reaffirm “the four nations’ commitment to bolstering regional security and stability.”

The Philippines’ patrol ship BRP Andres Bonifacio joined Canadian frigate HMCS Montreal, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Kirisame and the US guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson for a two-day drill within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea.

“Cooperation like this represents the centerpiece of our approach to a secure and prosperous region where aircraft and ships of all nations may fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows,” the US Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement.

While these exercises enhance interoperability between the Philippines and its allies and accelerate military modernization, they do little when it comes to China’s “gray zone” actions in the short run.

If anything, China’s increasingly assertive approach to the Philippines is likely due to its concerns about Manila’s growing military cooperation with Western powers, which are seeking expanded access to military facilities across the Southeast Asian nation.

The Biden administration has repeatedly clarified that an “armed attack” on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would automatically activate bilateral mutual defense treaty obligations.

But there has been no effective response so far to China’s gray zone approach. During his Shangri-La Dialogue keynote speech earlier this month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said that the death of any Philippine serviceman would be “very close to what we define as an act of war.”

However, he fell short of clarifying whether any casualties caused by China’s gray zone tactics would be met with an American military intervention.

Nor has the US clarified its position on how it would respond to any Chinese “gray zone” tactics that kill Philippine naval officers. As a result, both China and the Philippines are caught in a dangerous strategic conundrum, whereby each side is incentivized to push the envelope while hoping no actual war breaks out.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian