US doubling down on drone swarm war for Taiwan

The US seeks to revolutionize drone warfare through the rapid, iterative development and procurement of adaptable, cost-effective Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones, now seen as essential for maintaining air superiority against near-peer adversaries.

This month, The Warzone reported US Air Force (USAF) Chief of Staff General David Allvin has recently emphasized the necessity of shifting procurement practices to support the CCA drone program more effectively.

The Warzone notes that the CCA, a vital part of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative, aims to develop a new fleet of drones that will operate with crewed aircraft, particularly in air-to-air combat missions.

The report says the program plans to acquire these drones through so-called iterative development cycles, with the initial phase featuring designs from Anduril and General Atomics.

Allvin highlighted the importance of acquiring drones that are not designed to last for decades but can be quickly replaced or updated to keep pace with technological advancements.

This approach challenges the traditional “built to last” mindset, which often results in expensive and less adaptable systems. The Warzone report notes that the USAF’s strategy includes building drones with modularity and adaptability, allowing for easier updates and replacement as technology evolves.

The USAF aims to quickly produce cost-effective combat drones to maintain an advantage in future conflicts, particularly against rivals such as China, the Warzone report said. It notes that the cost-effectiveness and accelerated development cycles, termed “speed-to-ramp,” are critical to achieving this goal.

At the same time, the USAF is dealing with financial challenges and the need for major investments in programs like the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, underscoring the importance of re-evaluating the service’s traditional procurement and development practices, the Warzone report says.

The USAF’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget is expected to be tight, prompting a reevaluation of its operational strategies and a future focus on human-machine teaming. The Warzone report says the CCA program represents a movement toward creative and affordable solutions that can adjust to the fast-evolving field of aerial combat.

Various tactical, operational and strategic reasons have influenced the US’s full embrace of drone swarms. At the tactical level, drone swarms can be deployed offensively, defensively or in support of manned assets.

In a June 2023 Defense News article, Andrew Hoehn and Thom Shanker assert that China may struggle to counter drone swarms, making them a desirable option in contested areas to provide surveillance and targeting support for other weapon systems in the vicinity. They note China could opt to engage US drone swarms with expensive and limited air defense systems, incurring potentially unsustainable costs.

Asia Times noted in May 2022 that drone swarms could work alongside low-visibility manned aircraft like the F-35 and F-22 to target Chinese naval vessels, aircraft and missile installations. The drones could also screen manned aircraft, enhancing their sensor capabilities and allowing them to remain undetected by remaining electronically silent.

Drone swarms can leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to observe targets from different perspectives, compare different streams of targeting data and recommend the most effective approach for engaging a particular target. Drone swarms can also be deployed as defensive screens over critical infrastructure such as airfields, preventing enemy capture via airborne assault.

At the operational level, drone swarms offer the promise of low maintenance, upgrade and production costs, coupled with the flexibility to undertake various missions.

In a 2021 presentation for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Mark Gunzinger and Lukas Autenreid noted that swarming drones will not require expensive depot maintenance and periodic sustainment, and only need a few hours of peacetime training operations.

Gunzinger and Lukas note that modular designs with interchangeable mission systems, wing leading edges and internal and external weapon payloads could accelerate the manufacture of multiple variants and allow for rapid field reconfiguration between sorties for different missions.

In terms of cost-effectiveness, Irving Lachow notes in a 2017 Bulletin of Atomic Scientists article that a 30-drone Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (LOCUST) swarm then cost just $500,000 – less than half the price of the Harpoon anti-ship missile it is intended to replace.

The US might decide to use drone swarms in a cautious strategy in the Taiwan Strait to create the time to mobilize and respond with partners if China launches an invasion. However, some suggest China might already have the capability to effectively counter drone swarms.

Asia Times noted this month that the US has developed a “Hellscape” strategy for the Taiwan Strait to deter a potential Chinese invasion.

The strategy involves deploying multiple unmanned drones, submarines, surface vessels and other undisclosed assets to swarm the Taiwan Strait for a month to hinder Chinese military movements. This approach would grant the US and its partners time to mount a full military response.

Reports suggest Taiwan would be most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of an invasion. Without US intervention within that timeframe, the self-governing island would most likely fall and be annexed by China.

However, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) noted this month that China could counter the US Hellscape strategy, pointing out that China and the US are at par on drone swarm development.

The SCMP report points out that the US developed its Hellscape strategy in the context of declining US shipbuilding capabilities and that China has the world’s largest drone production capability.

The report also says that China can use drone swarms to counter the US in the Taiwan Strait and that Washington may need to consider how to deal with possibly larger drone swarms than it can deploy. The report also says that while the US can opt to deploy drone swarms in the Taiwan Strait, China could attack its crucial bases in Guam, Okinawa and beyond.

Moreover, Asia Times pointed out this month that a potential Chinese military base in Cuba could be used as a staging ground for special operations, missile strikes against US bases, ships and aircraft, and even sabotage against the US military and defense supply chains.

The threat of a direct attack against the US mainland may dissuade the US from intervening in the Taiwan Strait, breaking the logic of its “extended deterrence” guarantees for Taiwan.