China’s war with Taiwan is already underway

KINMEN, Taiwan – The Shun Da was kilometers off course. Authorized by China’s Maritime Safety Administration to dredge the seafloor for a new bridge near Xiamen, the Chinese-flagged vessel was instead buzzing the Taiwanese coast guard on Taiwan’s Dadan Island, about 16 kilometers to the southwest.

“It’s not supposed to be here,” said Asheng, a deckhand aboard a Taiwanese tourist boat that guided a journalist through the restricted waterway – and within a few hundred meters of the Shun Da’s stern. “But it happens all the time,” he added.

As the People’s Liberation Army wrapped up two days of military exercises around Taiwan last month, which China’s military called a “dress rehearsal” for a full-scale assault, the self-governing island’s leaders were focused elsewhere: On the margins, in the dark spaces where Beijing’s “gray zone” tactics quietly encroach on Taiwanese sovereignty.

“It has become a regular reality that we have to deal with,” said one high-ranking government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to the sensitivity of the matter. “Not just the military drills and exercises but near daily encroachment” into Taiwan’s airspace, sea lanes and even its politics.

China’s hybrid warfare – harder to see than kinetic tactics but no less threatening – is ramping up. As Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te – William Lai – seeks to maintain a delicate peace across the Taiwan Strait, China is doubling down on efforts to wage political, cognitive and maritime assaults.

Its goal? To upend the status quo without firing a shot, observers say.

“The Chinese communists’ pressure on Taiwan is all-encompassing, especially diplomatically,” Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said recently. “The Chinese communists are continuing to change the status quo. They are creating a new normal, pressing on at every stage, trying to nibble away and annex (us).”

The Shun Da’s unauthorized passage through Taiwanese-controlled waters is just one example of that nibbling. There are countless others.

During a briefing for journalists last month, scholars at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwanese military-affiliated think tank, laid out a half-dozen gray zone tactics that China regularly deploys to pick at Taiwan’s sovereignty, behaviors that rest just below the threshold of a conventional confrontation. These include economic coercion, critical infrastructure sabotage, harassment by drone and boat, and cyberattacks.

Beijing even wages “cognitive warfare,” disinformation campaigns meant to shape public opinion in China’s favor. Favorite topics include casting the United States as an unreliable partner to drive a wedge between Taipei and Washington, and branding Taiwan’s leaders “separatists” intent on declaring Taiwanese independence.

“We are certainly seeing an increase in gray zone activities, and we’re probably going to keep seeing more and more intrusions closer and closer to Taiwan, with a view to sending a signal that the Lai administration cannot defend Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said J Michael Cole, a Taipei-based security analyst.

“The danger in this is that the closer they get, the more traffic there is, the higher the possibility at some point of miscommunication, collision, or accidents. That then could lead to escalation quite rapidly. I doubt that China would de-escalate in that kind of situation.”

Incidents of gray zone incursions have spiked in recent months, as Chinese spy balloons, drones and civilian boats have traversed Taiwanese-controlled territory. Tensions surged in February when a Chinese fishing boat pursued by Taiwan’s coast guard capsized, killing two. Days later, China’s coast guard appeared to retaliate by inspecting a Taiwanese tourist boat near Kinmen.

Incursions have continued in the month since President Lai’s inauguration. Last week, Taiwanese authorities arrested a Chinese man who piloted a motorboat into a harbor at the mouth of the Tamsui River, which leads to the capital, Taipei. Military observers say these incidents are designed to test Taiwan’s defenses and exhaust the island’s ability to respond.

China contends that Taiwan is a renegade province and an inseparable part of the People’s Republic. While Taiwan was never under PRC control, Beijing has vowed to “reunify” Taiwan, by force if necessary.

Yet a kinetic war would be costly. Bloomberg Economics estimates war over Taiwan would erase some US$10 trillion, roughly 10%, from the global economy. Given the stakes, gray zone warfare may be more appealing.

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington DC-based think tank, suggested Beijing could use such tactics, led by its coast guard and law enforcement forces, to simply quarantine Taiwan, rather than encircle it. Cutting off access to even one port, like Kaohsiung in the south, would be difficult for Taiwan and its allies to counter.

“Little attention has been paid to the possibility of such scenarios, but in the short term, a quarantine is more likely than an invasion or a military blockade,” the report said. “It also would generate greater uncertainty in terms of how Taiwan and the international community can effectively respond.”

Leaders in Taipei say the best way to defend against China’s actions is to increase defense spending and strengthen ties with allies. “We need to increase our arsenal …and learn from Ukraine,” said Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. “Enough is never enough. We need to [strengthen] our indigenous capacity.”

On the frontline island of Kinmen, where the Shun Da recently sliced through Taiwan’s restricted waterways, concern over China’s moves is more muted.

Officials here speak of cooperation with China; Kinmen sits just a few kilometers off the mainland’s coast. On day two of Beijing’s recent military exercise, Kinmen County’s deputy mayor was visiting China to discuss a cross-Strait swimming competition.

“Do I worry about a Chinese invasion? Of course I worry,” said the deputy mayor, Li Wen-Liang. “But we shouldn’t close communication channels we have built because of fear.”

Ahming, a tanned, white-bearded Taiwanese fisherman in Kinmen, was even more relaxed. He said China’s recent gray zone activities have had a net-positive impact on his work.

Because the Taiwanese coast guard regularly patrols the waters where he fishes, he said, Chinese trawlers are no longer entering Taiwan’s waters in large numbers.

“I don’t think China is as bad as people think,” said Ahming as he deftly untangled his fishing net after a day at sea. “They’re always taking an inch, giving an inch. If they really want to use force, we can do nothing.”

Greg C Bruno is a journalist, editor and author of “Blessings from Beijing: Inside China’s Soft-Power War on Tibet.” He’s also the project manager for the Taiwan Reporting Project.