On December 2, 2016, US President-elect Donald Trump made international headlines by accepting a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s then-president Tsai Ing-wen.
It was a noteworthy break with diplomatic custom; since the 1970s, the United States had remained committed to a “One China” policy to placate leaders in Beijing.
At the time, Trump’s call was interpreted as perhaps a signal of bigger foreign policy changes on the horizon. Considering the billionaire’s harsh criticism of China during the election campaign, policymakers reasonably wondered if the incoming Trump administration would be the most pro-Taipei in decades.
Now, eight years later, former president Trump cannot even openly commit to preserving Taiwan’s autonomy.
This apparent policy shift was on display during a recent interview with Bloomberg Businessweek. When directly pressed on the issue, Trump blatantly refused to answer whether he would honor the longstanding US commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
Rather, the Republican nominee questioned the existing nature of the relationship itself. “I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he said. “Now we’re giving them billions of dollars to build new chips in our country, and then they’re going to take that, too.”
The comments were reminiscent of Trump’s past criticisms of Washington’s security commitments. He has called NATO “obsolete” and reportedly seriously considered withdrawing all 28,500 US troops from South Korea.
However, while Trump’s transactional perspective on foreign policy is well-established, his administration’s policies did not always align with his isolationist rhetoric.
Officials in Taipei would be wise to look more toward Trump’s actual record in government when assessing his prospective second term and less toward his inconsistent rhetoric.
Regarding security commitments, US support for Taiwan under the Trump administration can only be viewed as exceptional. In 2020, the White House approved a historic $2.37 billion arms sale to the island, which included Boeing’s Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems, a highly effective anti-ship missile.
In 2019, Trump approved the sale of 66 F-16 fighter jets to Taipei, something that his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama had previously refused to do.
Moreover, the Trump administration participated in several high-stakes military exercises with Taiwan during its tenure. Between 2018 and 2019, US naval vessels sailed through the Taiwan Strait a record nine times, far more than in previous years.
US support for Taiwan during the Republican nominee’s tenure was not limited to weaponry. In 2018, President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act, which protected the ability of high-ranking US officials to travel unhindered to the self-governing island.
The move was not purely symbolic either. Two years later, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar became one of the most senior government officials to visit Taiwan in decades.
That was followed by a visit from then-Undersecretary of State Keith Krach, marking another diplomatic milestone for the two sides. These measures have contributed to the former president’s popularity in Taiwan. In a 2020 YouGov survey on the US presidential election, Taiwanese residents responded overwhelmingly in support of Trump.
Taipei is treading carefully regarding Trump’s recent comments. “In the future, Taiwan will continue to work with the United States and like-minded countries to strengthen Taiwan’s defense capability and jointly maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” one Taiwanese official told reporters.
Premier Cho Jung-tai echoed this sentiment when pressed on the issue, pledging that Taipei would be open to assuming more responsibility for its defense.
There is little doubt that Trump’s comments constitute a serious concern for those interested in Taiwan’s autonomy. However, any alarm should be tempered when considering that Trump has a vast and extensive history of hyperbolic, often nonsensical, statements.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump famously threatened to “lock up” his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton and called for a ban on all Muslims entering the US. The real estate mogul also once questioned former president Obama’s citizenship and insisted that Mexico would finance the construction of his border wall pet project.
In foreign policy, actions should speak louder than words. While sometimes destabilizing and frequently reckless, Trump’s history of isolationist language does not align with the policies he pursued in office. And there is little to suggest from Trump’s previous tenure that he would abandon US security commitments to Taiwan.
On the contrary, his explicit and direct criticisms of Beijing necessitate a close and productive relationship with Taiwan. Hegemonic competition in the South China Sea will only grow in the coming years, putting Taipei in the strategic middle of the world’s two superpowers and front and center of a potential second Trump term.
Caleb M Mills is a research assistant at Purdue University studying behavioral and ideological trends among non-state and state actors and a resident assistant with the South China Sea Newswire.
His work has been featured in the Geopolitical Monitor, International Policy Digest and RealClearPolitics, and was recently cited in Anatol Lieven’s recent book ‘Climate Change and the Nation-State’ published by Oxford University.