US future fighter plans in freefall

The US Air Force faces a budget battle over retiring F-22 Raptors and funding next-gen fighters, sparking debates on strategic priorities and future air dominance versus near-peer adversaries.

This month, Airforce Technology reported that the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) criticized the USAF budget proposal for fiscal year 2023. The GAO stated that the USAF did not provide adequate data to Congress regarding the implications of retiring older F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, particularly the Block 20 variants used for training.

Airforce Technology notes that  USAF operates 32 F-22 Block 20 fighters, not upgraded to the capability levels of the more advanced Block 30/35 models.

The GAO pointed out that the USAF’s proposal lacked crucial details, such as alternative training methods without Block 20s or the potential benefits of upgrading these aircraft instead of retiring them.

Airforce Technology says Northrop Grumman estimated that upgrading the Block 20 aircraft to the Block 30/35 standard would cost at least $3.3 billion and take around 15 years. However, it notes that the USAF deemed this limited information sufficient for its purposes, in contrast to the GAO’s recommendation for more comprehensive data to support decision-making.

Further, the publication mentions that the National Defense Authorization Act prohibits reducing the F-22 inventory. That stands in the way of the retirement of Block 20 aircraft until the secretary of the Air Force presents a detailed plan to Congress.

Also, once touted as the future of US air superiority, the Next Generation Air Dominance program faces a similarly uncertain future as it potentially goes down a cost-death spiral. This month, Defense One reported that the USAF is considering changes to the NGAD program, which aimed to produce a sixth-generation fighter jet. Defense One notes this is due to budget constraints, technological challenges and evolving concepts of air dominance.

The publication mentions that the Air Force chief of staff, General David Allvin, and Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall have hesitated to continue the NGAD program. The program was expected to select a winner between Lockheed Martin and Boeing this year. However, the USAF’s commitment to the program is now in question, with Allvin emphasizing that no final decision has been made.

Defense One notes the potential cancellation of the NGAD and its significant implications for the US defense industry. Delays in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program and Boeing’s underwhelming defense performance are contributing factors, along with Boeing’s management issues and Lockheed Martin’s lack of incentives for cost-effective execution.

Defense One points out that the USAF is grappling with the high costs of NGAD, estimated at USD 300 million per unit, alongside investments in the F-35, B-21 Raider and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs. It also says advances in new technologies and drones are prompting a reevaluation of air dominance strategies.

While the US has considered upgrading the F-22 to keep it relevant as an air superiority platform, those upgrades may result in an obsolete fighter upon delivery.

In May 2024, Asia Times reported that the USAF prioritizes developing more advanced and combat-ready F-22 models over modernizing older Block 20 jets as part of its strategy for evolving military hardware and managing potential technological risks.

The US F-22 fleet is set for a USD 22 billion upgrade over the next decade, possibly keeping the fighter in service until the 2040s.

The F-22 aircraft will undergo significant upgrades to improve its avionics, stealth capability, and overall survivability. These upgrades will be applied to 142 F-22s, addressing various maintenance and operational requirements.

However, upgrading the F-22s will require a lot of time and resources that could be better used to develop a more advanced fighter. There are also concerns that the F-22 might become outdated for its role by the time the upgrades are completed.

Further, Asia Times has noted that 6th-generation fighters may not be the best use of resources for the US military. Instead, focusing on more affordable unmanned systems and space-based weapons platforms that align with future strategic needs might be better.

Investing excessively in complicated and costly warplanes could compromise the US military’s effectiveness, particularly in critical domains such as space.

While the US has several options to address this problem, each course of action has its pitfalls. Negative factors include older aircraft reaching the ends of their upgrade potential, extended development timeframes for new fighter aircraft, F-35 production problems and cost-benefit challenges in upgrading the F-22.

In an October 2021 Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies paper, Heather Penney recommends that the Air Force continue extending the life of select legacy aircraft as these are essential for combat infrastructure. However, Penney points out that legacy aircraft are not viable in contested battlespace and should be replaced with 5th-generation aircraft to maintain combat capacity.

Penney mentions that while the F-15EX can be a stopgap measure for the USAF’s fighter woes, it lacks the survivability of stealth aircraft and funding for it could be better allocated to develop fighter aircraft relevant to modern threats.

While Penney suggests that developing a clean-sheet fighter design may be an option, it must be effective in a near-peer conflict and affordable enough to facilitate recapitalization and high-tempo usage. She says that given the extended timeframe of any new fighter program, the only realistic option is to accelerate F-35A procurement.

But that course of action has its challenges. Asia Times reported in March 2024 that, while the US has finally approved full-rate production of the F-35 stealth fighter four years later than planned, the program has faced delays and the USAF may not be able to buy as many F-35s as initially planned due to budget cuts. Despite this, the 2025 cuts will still allow for progress on modernization.

While the US grapples with ramping up F-35 production, Penney says there is no other credible 5^th-generation aircraft capable of challenging China and Russia.

In addition, Penney notes that while the USAF determines how to advance its NGAD program, extending the service life of the F-22 fleet is imperative, albeit taking into account previously mentioned pitfalls.