Japan plans to construct more missile storage facilities to build a long-range counterstrike arsenal against China and North Korea amid a poor track record of munitions stockpiling, and an underfunded defense industry.
This month, Kyodo News reported that Japan plans to build more ammunition depots at Self-Defense Forces facilities from fiscal 2024 to store long-range missiles as it acquires enemy base strike capabilities as part of its efforts to increase 130 such facilities by fiscal 2032 from around 1,400 currently.
Kyodo News notes that the depots will be located at nine Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces (JGSDF) facilities across the prefectures of Hokkaido, Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Okinawa.
The source says the Ministry of Defense (MOD) has requested 12.4 billion yen (US$84 million) to build the depots under the 2024 state budget, which will be drafted in December, with the new fiscal year starting in April.
It says that with the funds, the MOD will start surveys to build depots at six facilities in Hokkaido, design two depots at a base in Miyazaki, five at a training ground in Okinawa, and acquire land to construct three depots at a base in Kagoshima.
It also notes that the MOD is expected to keep the types and volume of ammunition the depots would store classified, raising safety concerns among residents.
Provocative missile tests
Growing missile threats from China and North Korea have prompted Japan to build a massive missile arsenal with counterstrike capabilities in mind.
In August 2022, Reuters reported that for the first time, five Chinese ballistic missiles landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) during extensive Chinese military drills in response to former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan, prompting strong diplomatic protests from Japan.
Aside from that, The New York Times reported this June that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles that month, which also landed in Japan’s EEZ.
Those tests are just the tip of the missile-threat iceberg that Japan is facing. In August, Asia Times noted that China has 1,900 ground-launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and 300 intermediate-range cruise missiles that can hit Japan. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles that bring Japan within range.
Both countries have also developed hypersonic missiles that could potentially evade Japan’s current defense systems.
In response to those threats, The Japan Times reported in March that Japan plans to upgrade all eight of its Aegis destroyers by fiscal 2027 to install US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The Japan Times notes that the Japanese government plans to acquire the latest Tomahawk Block-5 missiles with a range of about 1,600 kilometers and has announced a plan to purchase 400 Tomahawks, earmarking 211.3 billion yen in the budget for fiscal 2023.
Aside from buying US Tomahawk missiles, Japan aims to produce long-range missiles indigenously. Asia Times reported in August 2022 that Japan was considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to improve its counterstrike capabilities against China.
The missiles will be modified from the JGSDF’s Type 12 subsonic anti-ship missiles, increasing their range from 100 to 1,000 kilometers. They will be deployed from ships, and fighter jets and are planned to be based on Japan’s Southwest Islands and Kyushu. The upgraded ground-launched Type 12 will be deployed in 2024, two years earlier than planned.
Further, Asia Times reported in August that Japan is developing a cruise missile equipped with interchangeable reconnaissance, electronic warfare (EW), and conventional warheads as part of a wider plan to deploy 1,000 upgraded cruise missiles by 2026 to deter China.
When using these missiles, Japan could launch a reconnaissance warhead with a high-performance camera to determine the enemy’s position, followed by an EW missile to disable enemy radar and other sensors, after which a conventionally armed missile would deliver the lethal strike.
The new missiles are intended to destroy enemy vessels passing through the Nansei Islands spanning Kyushu and Okinawa prefecture.
Moreover, Japan is developing new delivery systems for its planned missile arsenal. In August, Asia Times reported on Japan’s plans to convert cargo planes into ad hoc missile carriers, operating from austere and remote airstrips. The MOD aims to arm its Kawasaki C-2 transport jets with air-launched missiles to attack enemy bases in counterstrike operations.
Also, the US is developing related technology known as the Rapid Dragon air-launched palletized munition concept, which the US first tested in 2021. Japan may use Rapid Dragon or a similar domestically developed system aboard its 14 C-130 cargo planes.
Palletized munition systems can solve air-launched cruise missile platform compatibility, availability, and capacity issues. Japan operates Western-made or -inspired fighter jets limited to two air-launched cruise missiles with no bombers.
Obstacles to plans
Despite those ambitious plans to build a formidable missile arsenal, Japan faces significant challenges.
In a December 2022 RAND article, Jeffrey Hornung says Japan does not have a good track record in stockpiling munitions, noting that despite the absence of public records of current munitions stockpiles, media reports and private discussions with officials show that Japan has not done well in at stockpiling large numbers of air or ship-launched munitions.
Hornung says the MOD budgets of late have allocated resources toward securing continuous operations, which includes standoff munitions. Further, he notes that the defense budget request for August 2022 included ammunition for continuous operations and securing manufacturing systems for certain types of ammunition, indicating Japan’s commitment.
However, Hornung points out that Japan’s experience many of its old munition depots suggests that follow-through in this area may be lacking.
Japan also faces missile-manufacturing challenges. In December 2021, The Mainichi reported that Japan’s defense industry struggles with high prices, aging technology, and scant government support.
The source notes that Japan established its own Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency in 2015 to boost the domestic defense industry and foster joint technology research, development, and sales with friendly countries. However, it says profits have declined as the government increased its purchases of expensive equipment from the US.
According to the source, negotiations over the cost of purchasing expensive US jets and other equipment have been causing delays in the overhaul of Japan’s defense system. It says Japan negotiated the cost of upgrading dozens of F-15 fighter jets, initially estimated at 552 billion yen down to 397 billion yen (US$3.5 billion).
The Mainichi says Japan switched to shorter-range air-to-surface standoff missiles made domestically instead of using US long-range anti-ship cruise missiles as initially planned to reduce costs even further.
Stockpiling US-made missiles is not a feasible option, as the US may need all its missile stocks in a potential conflict with China, leaving little to spare for Japan. Also, being an island nation, Japan is vulnerable to blockade, necessitating boosting local production.
In addition, Japan’s US missile purchases are limited to what the US authorizes for purchase, potentially limiting Japan’s capabilities.